Baye test essay

Bayes' theorem is a mathematical equation used in probability and statistics to calculate conditional probability. In other words, it is used to calculate the probability of an event based on its association with another event.

Therefore, a test, which is unable to screen a user first time, can be used multiple times to update our belief with the successive application of Bayes’ rule. The best thing about Bayesian inference is the ability to use prior knowledge in the form of a Prior probability term in the numerator of the Bayes’ theorem.

A specific test rarely registers a false positive. A perfect test would be 100 percent sensitive and specific. In reality, tests have a minimum error called the Bayes error rate. For example, consider a drug test that is 99 percent sensitive and 99 percent specific.

The best thing about Bayesian inference is the ability to use prior knowledge in the form of a Prior probability term in the numerator of the Bayes’ theorem. In this setting of drug screening, the prior knowledge is nothing but the computed probability of a test which is then fed back to the next test.